Why Every Microsoft Power Platform Project Gets Underestimated (And What You Can Actually Do About It)
Let’s be honest: if you’ve ever been part of a Microsoft Power Platform or Dynamics 365 project, you’ve probably heard someone say, ‘We finished, but it took longer than we thought.’ I remember my first Power Platform rollout; I underestimated the timeline so badly that my team and I ate more takeout dinners than anyone should in one month. But why do we keep making the same mistake—even with the best intentions and tools? Let’s pull back the curtain on project estimation, shake out the usual excuses, and see what’s really happening beneath the surface.
The Underestimation Trap: Why Projects Never Seem to Fit the Plan
If you’ve ever worked on a Microsoft Power Platform or Dynamics 365 project, you’ve probably felt the sting of underestimation. I still remember my first Dynamics 365 estimation disaster—those caffeine-fueled weeknights, scrambling to deliver features I thought would take half the time. But here’s the thing: it’s not just about inexperience. Even the most seasoned teams, with all the right project estimation techniques, get caught in this trap.
Let’s clear up some common misconceptions. It’s easy to blame underestimation on the wrong team composition, incomplete up-front specs, or a lack of ‘perfect’ documentation. Maybe you think if you just analyze everything in advance, or have your lead architect estimate every requirement, you’ll finally get it right. But research shows that even advanced estimation methods—like team-based planning, risk-adjusted estimates, and using story points—don’t guarantee accuracy. In fact, studies indicate that project estimation accuracy directly impacts project approval rates and overall success, yet the problem persists across all skill levels.
So, what’s really going on? The real culprit is much deeper: project approval bias. There’s a systemic tendency to favor optimistic estimates, not because teams are careless, but because the approval process itself rewards lower, more appealing numbers. As one project manager put it,
“We don’t win overestimated projects.”
Think about it. Imagine you’re submitting a proposal for a Power Platform or Dynamics 365 project. You know your team can deliver, but your honest estimate—factoring in all the risks and unknowns—looks expensive and time-consuming. Meanwhile, another team submits a more optimistic plan. When the project committee reviews both, they’re naturally drawn to the proposal that fits the budget and timeline they want to see. The underestimated plan gets approved. The honest, realistic one? Rejected. This isn’t just a personal failing—it’s a systemic issue built into how projects are funded and approved.
Let’s look at a real-world example for context:
Let’s be honest: if you’ve ever been part of a Microsoft Power Platform or Dynamics 365 project, you’ve probably heard someone say, ‘We finished, but it took longer than we thought.’ I remember my first Power Platform rollout; I underestimated the timeline so badly that my team and I ate more takeout dinners than anyone should in one month. But why do we keep making the same mistake—even with the best intentions and tools? Let’s pull back the curtain on project estimation, shake out the usual excuses, and see what’s really happening beneath the surface.
The Underestimation Trap: Why Projects Never Seem to Fit the Plan
If you’ve ever worked on a Microsoft Power Platform or Dynamics 365 project, you’ve probably felt the sting of underestimation. I still remember my first Dynamics 365 estimation disaster—those caffeine-fueled weeknights, scrambling to deliver features I thought would take half the time. But here’s the thing: it’s not just about inexperience. Even the most seasoned teams, with all the right project estimation techniques, get caught in this trap.
Let’s clear up some common misconceptions. It’s easy to blame underestimation on the wrong team composition, incomplete up-front specs, or a lack of ‘perfect’ documentation. Maybe you think if you just analyze everything in advance, or have your lead architect estimate every requirement, you’ll finally get it right. But research shows that even advanced estimation methods—like team-based planning, risk-adjusted estimates, and using story points—don’t guarantee accuracy. In fact, studies indicate that project estimation accuracy directly impacts project approval rates and overall success, yet the problem persists across all skill levels.
So, what’s really going on? The real culprit is much deeper: project approval bias. There’s a systemic tendency to favor optimistic estimates, not because teams are careless, but because the approval process itself rewards lower, more appealing numbers. As one project manager put it,
“We don’t win overestimated projects.”
Think about it. Imagine you’re submitting a proposal for a Power Platform or Dynamics 365 project. You know your team can deliver, but your honest estimate—factoring in all the risks and unknowns—looks expensive and time-consuming. Meanwhile, another team submits a more optimistic plan. When the project committee reviews both, they’re naturally drawn to the proposal that fits the budget and timeline they want to see. The underestimated plan gets approved. The honest, realistic one? Rejected. This isn’t just a personal failing—it’s a systemic issue built into how projects are funded and approved.
Let’s look at a real-world example for context:
MetricForecastActualStory Points8001,000Timeline6 monthsNearly 1 yearCost$1M$1.5M
Despite using best-practice project estimation techniques—team-based planning, just-in-time analysis, Fibonacci story points, and clear user stories—the project still ran over on every metric. Why? Because the underestimated plan was the one that got approved. If every estimate was truly honest, how many projects would actually get funded?
This approval bias isn’t unique to Microsoft Power Platform or Dynamics 365. It’s a challenge across the tech industry, but it’s especially pronounced in environments where agile practices and rapid development are expected to deliver results quickly. So, while you can (and should) improve your estimation skills, remember: the system itself often rewards optimism over realism.
Why Great Agile Teams Still Get It Wrong
It’s easy to assume that if you follow all the right Agile practices—team-based estimation, using Fibonacci story points, writing clear user stories with acceptance criteria, and applying risk-adjusted estimates—you’ll finally crack the code of accurate project forecasting. But even the best-prepared Microsoft Power Platform teams find themselves underestimating, time and again. Why?
The Best Estimation Practices (and Their Limits)
Team-based estimation beats lone-wolf guessing. Getting everyone in a room, hashing out story points together, and leveraging collective experience is proven to improve accuracy. But it’s not a guarantee.
Fibonacci story points help teams avoid false precision. The jump from 5 to 8, or 13 to 21, acknowledges that uncertainty grows with complexity. Still, even with this method, teams often miss the mark.
Risk-adjusted estimates are designed to account for the unknowns. You add a buffer, factor in potential blockers, and try to be realistic. Yet, somehow, surprises still crop up.
User stories and acceptance criteria are essential. They clarify requirements and set expectations. But even the most detailed stories can’t capture every twist and turn of a real-world project.
Just-in-time analysis and emergent design sound great in theory. You avoid over-planning, adapt as you go, and let solutions emerge naturally. In practice, though, this can lead to messy pivots and shifting backlogs.
Why Underestimation Persists—Even for the Best Teams
Research shows that team-based and risk-adjusted estimation techniques are preferred in agile projects, but they’re not foolproof. Even with a nearly perfect backlog, exceptional teams still underestimate. Why? Because unexpected change and imperfect information are simply part of the territory. No amount of training or process can engineer away every surprise.
Let’s look at a real-world scenario. Your team forecasts 800 story points for a Power Platform project, expecting to deliver 60 points per sprint and finish in six months. In reality, you deliver 1,000 points, average 50 points per sprint, and the project stretches to nearly a year. The gap isn’t due to inexperience, poor requirements, or lack of technical expertise. It’s the nature of complex software projects—especially when business needs, integrations, and scope evolve midstream.
The Wild Cards: Human Factors and Approval Bias
Sometimes, a rookie’s gut feeling is closer to reality than a team’s consensus. And let’s not forget the business side: overestimated projects rarely get approved. Underestimated plans, on the other hand, are more likely to pass the project committee—even if, in hindsight, they were never realistic. This persistent gap between theory and practice is a reality every Power Platform team faces, no matter how mature their Agile practices.
Project Approval Poker: How the Cheapest Estimate Wins (But at What Cost?)
Imagine you’re sitting in a project approval meeting, reviewing two Microsoft Power Platform proposals. One promises delivery in six months for $1 million and 800 story points. The other, a bit more cautious, forecasts nine months, $1.5 million, and 1,000 story points. Which one gets the green light? If you guessed the cheaper, faster plan, you’re right—and you’re not alone. Research shows that project approval rates consistently favor the most optimistic estimates, not necessarily the most accurate ones.
Why Underestimated Plans Win Over Committees
There’s a simple reason underestimated proposals often win: decision-makers are drawn to lower budgets and shorter timelines. It’s not just wishful thinking—it’s a natural bias. When reviewing multiple project estimation techniques, committees tend to gravitate toward what looks best on paper. After all, who wouldn’t want a Microsoft Power Platform solution delivered faster and for less?
But here’s the catch: the most realistic estimate is almost always invisible until the project is over. As one project manager put it,
"The perfectly estimated proposal was rejected because no one knew that it was perfectly estimated at the time."
The Overlooked Cost: Project Overruns and Operational Headaches
Choosing the lowest estimate might feel like a win, but it often leads to trouble down the road. When the real work begins, teams discover that the optimistic plan didn’t account for all the complexities. Suddenly, that six-month, $1 million project stretches to a year and costs $1.5 million—right in line with the original, more realistic estimate that was rejected.
This isn’t just theory. In Microsoft Power Platform projects, where agile methods and automation are supposed to speed things up, underestimating can mean missed requirements, rushed testing, and operational headaches. Studies indicate that project estimation techniques like risk-adjusted estimates and team-based planning can improve accuracy, but these are often ignored in favor of “winning” the approval process.
Builder’s Quote Analogy: Cheapest Isn’t Always Best
Think of it like hiring a builder. You get three quotes: one low, one high, one in the middle. The cheapest looks tempting, but you know from experience that the lowest price often means corners cut or costs added later. The same logic applies to Microsoft Power Platform projects. The lowest bid may win, but it rarely delivers the best outcome.
Selection Bias: Why Realistic Estimates Get Left Behind
There’s a hidden flaw in the selection process. Committees rarely reward accuracy—they reward optimism. Perfect estimates are only recognized in hindsight. The proposal that truly reflects the work required is often dismissed because it doesn’t fit the narrative of “faster, cheaper, better.”
So, while project approval rates for underestimated plans remain high, the real cost is often paid later—in overruns, rework, and lost trust. Understanding these selection biases is the first step toward better project estimation techniques and more successful Microsoft Power Platform outcomes.
Automation and Agile Practices: A Not-So-Magical Fix
Let’s get real about Power Platform automation and Agile practices. You might hope that automating everything and following agile to the letter would guarantee your Microsoft Power Platform project finishes on time and on budget. But, as you’ve probably discovered, that’s just not how it works.
Even with the most advanced automation—think Power Platform Build Tools, GitHub Actions, and seamless integrations—there’s no magic switch that delivers perfect project estimates or flawless schedules. Automation increases productivity by eliminating manual tasks, but it isn’t a magic bullet for estimation woes. You’ll still find yourself sipping coffee during late-night deployments, wondering how the timeline slipped again.
Where Automation Actually Delivers
Don’t get me wrong: Power Platform automation is a game-changer for reducing manual drudgework. Automating repetitive tasks—like test releases, data imports, or workflow triggers—frees up your team to focus on higher-value work. Research shows that automation with Power Platform not only saves time but also improves data accuracy and reduces errors, which is a big win for productivity.
But here’s the catch: even if you automate your test releases, you might still miss your delivery date. Why? Because automation can’t predict shifting requirements, unexpected bugs, or the classic “just one more feature” requests. It’s a productivity booster, not a crystal ball.
Real-World Example: Automation Isn’t a Schedule Savior
Imagine a team that’s automated their entire build and release pipeline using Power Platform and Dynamics 365. They’re pushing out updates faster than ever. Yet, despite all this efficiency, the project still slips past the original deadline. The culprit? Underestimated requirements, evolving user stories, and the ever-present unknowns of enterprise projects. Automation handled the grunt work, but it couldn’t account for everything else.
The Role of Power Platform Governance
Here’s where Power Platform governance and tenant strategies come in. Without a solid governance model and environment strategy, automation can actually create chaos at scale. Governance ensures that as your organization adopts more Power Platform solutions, you maintain security, compliance, and order. It’s not glamorous, but it’s essential for long-term sanity and scalability.
Continuous Learning: Building Real Resilience
So, what can you actually do? Invest in continuous learning. Microsoft Power Platform courses and agile training—like those offered by Customery Academy—won’t give you perfect estimates, but they will build your team’s resilience and adaptability. Training helps you master agile best practices, improve estimation techniques (think Fibonacci story points and risk-adjusted estimates), and create better user stories. But remember, education is a tool, not a shortcut.
In the end, low-code doesn’t mean no-hassle. Automation and agile practices are powerful, but they’re not a cure-all. They help you work smarter, not magically predict the future. And that’s an important distinction for every Power Platform project lead to remember.
When Best Practices Aren’t Enough: Lessons Learned the Hard Way
Even if you’ve mastered user stories acceptance criteria and have a backlog that looks flawless on paper, there’s a good chance your Microsoft Power Platform project will still end up underestimated. It’s not because you skipped the right Agile practices or failed to use story mapping. It’s something deeper—and a little more frustrating.
You can train your team in estimation techniques, use Fibonacci story points, and run backlog grooming sessions until everyone knows the drill by heart. But here’s the hard truth: building real estimation muscle comes from experience, not just textbooks. The most valuable lessons often arrive after something goes sideways, not before.
When Story Mapping Isn’t Enough
I remember a project where I was convinced our user story mapping was airtight. Every requirement was mapped, every acceptance criterion reviewed. We’d even run multiple grooming sessions. But as the project moved closer to go-live, a creeping sense of panic set in. Did we miss a requirement? Was there hidden complexity lurking in the “simple” stories?
Turns out, there was. And it wasn’t because the team lacked expertise or that the technology was new. Even with mature Power Platform adoption maturity, surprises emerged. Research shows that while user story mapping and backlog grooming are essential for exposing gaps, they don’t eliminate estimation surprises—especially under real-world pressure.
The ‘Did We Miss Something?’ Moment
That last-minute scramble before go-live is a rite of passage for most teams. No matter how thorough your user stories acceptance criteria are, there’s always a moment when someone asks, “Did we miss a requirement?” This isn’t a sign of failure—it’s a natural part of complex projects, especially when scaling solutions with Power Platform’s rapid development capabilities.
Agile practices help you adapt and recover, but they don’t guarantee perfection. Even with automation tools like Power Platform Build Tools or GitHub Actions streamlining your workflows, hidden complexity can surface. The best teams don’t panic—they adapt, learn, and move forward.
Embracing Imperfection and Team Growth
Here’s what mature teams know: progress in agile delivery comes from both process improvement and surviving setbacks. Every project leaves you with a post-mortem “oh, that’s why” moment. These debriefs are as valuable as the initial planning sessions. They help you refine your estimation process and build resilience for the next round.
So, don’t beat yourself up when your estimates miss the mark. Celebrate the small wins. Recognize that even the best Agile practices and the most detailed user stories can’t predict every twist. Over time, your team’s estimation accuracy will improve—not because you’ve eliminated surprises, but because you’ve learned how to handle them.
The Cost of Optimism: What Overruns Actually Mean for Your Team and Career
If you’ve ever worked on a Microsoft Power Platform project, you know the familiar story: the initial estimate looks achievable, the business case gets approved, and everyone feels optimistic. Fast forward nearly a year, and your team has delivered 1,000 story points—almost 50 points per sprint—at a cost of $1.5 million. But the original plan? That called for just 800 points, a six-month timeline, and a $1 million budget. So, what happened?
The Emotional Cost: Late Nights and Burnout
Underestimating a project doesn’t just impact budgets; it takes a real toll on your team. Those late nights and weekends spent catching up—often fueled by takeout and caffeine—add up. Burnout becomes a real risk, and team morale can plummet. Research shows that chronic schedule slips in agile business processes, especially with complex platforms like Microsoft Power Platform, can affect not just productivity but also how your team is perceived within the organization. It’s not just about the numbers; it’s about people.
How Underestimation Snowballs
When you underestimate, the pressure mounts as soon as reality sets in. Budget tension grows. Delivery stress becomes the norm. The gap between what was promised and what’s actually possible widens with every sprint. This isn’t just a financial issue—project estimation techniques that miss the mark can erode trust between teams, stakeholders, and leadership. Overruns force tough conversations about priorities, scope, and sometimes even blame.
What Decision-Makers Really Want
Here’s the tricky part: decision-makers want value, but they also want guardrails. When reviewing proposals, committees often pick the plan that fits the budget they hope for, not necessarily the one that’s most realistic. As the source material shows, your underestimated proposal was chosen over a more accurate one simply because it looked better on paper. Ironically, a perfectly estimated plan is rarely recognized as such—at least not until the project is finished and the numbers are in.
Redefining Success: Beyond the Numbers
In the world of Microsoft Power Platform and agile business processes, success isn’t just about delivering on time and on budget. Studies indicate that learning and growth are just as important. Every overrun, every missed estimate, is a chance to refine your project estimation techniques and improve your processes. Adaptability and continuous improvement are what set successful teams apart—especially when working with evolving platforms and automation tools.
Project Breakdown: The Reality Check
1,000 points delivered—but only 800 were planned
Nearly a year’s delivery—instead of six months
$1.5M spent—versus a $1M forecast
This isn’t just a story about missed numbers. It’s about understanding the true cost of optimism and how it shapes your team’s experience, reputation, and future projects.
Making Peace with Imperfect Estimation: Final Thoughts and Practical Next Steps
Let’s be honest—there’s no magic wand for perfect project estimation, especially when you’re working with Microsoft Power Platform resources. Even with the best Agile practices, estimation will always be part science, part art. You can use every spreadsheet, template, and tool available, but there will always be surprises that no formula can predict. That’s not a failure; it’s just the reality of building something new and valuable.
Think of project estimation like weather forecasting. Sometimes you bring a raincoat, sometimes an umbrella, and sometimes you still get caught in the downpour. The point isn’t to stay 100% dry—it’s to be prepared, flexible, and ready to adapt. In Power Platform automation projects, this means accepting that estimates are guides, not guarantees. Every project—no matter how similar it looks on paper—teaches you something the last one didn’t. Spreadsheets can’t capture the nuances of team dynamics, evolving requirements, or those unexpected “aha” moments that come from working closely with users.
So, what can you actually do about it? The answer is continual experimentation. Each project is a chance to refine your approach. Research shows that teams who embrace humility and keep learning from both successes and missteps see better estimation outcomes over time. Retrospectives, peer reviews, and open conversations about what worked (and what didn’t) are invaluable. This is where leveraging the broader community and training resources—like Customery Academy courses—can make a real difference. These platforms offer practical guidance on mastering Agile practices and applying them directly to your Power Platform and Dynamics 365 projects, helping you build confidence and skill with every iteration.
It’s also worth noting that sometimes, the lowest estimate isn’t the best deal. Just as with builder quotes, a bargain price can mean missed details, rushed work, or hidden costs down the line. It pays to be realistic, to factor in risk, and to communicate openly with your stakeholders about what’s possible within the time and budget you have. Using established Agile estimation techniques—like Fibonacci story points or risk-adjusted estimates—can help set more accurate expectations and foster trust within your team and with your clients.
As you move forward, remember: estimation is an iterative, learn-as-you-go process. The more you tap into peer networks, formal learning, and community resources, the sharper your team’s intuition will become. Don’t expect miracles, but do expect progress. With every project, you’ll get a little better at navigating the uncertainties. And if you’re looking to accelerate your growth, consider exploring Customery Academy courses for ongoing support and up-to-date Microsoft Power Platform resources. In the end, it’s not about being perfect—it’s about getting smarter, together, one project at a time.